Local election thoughts

Other unanswered questions include whether the mayor will actually get around to finishing his Super Mega 30-Year Transport Plan, and whether his org chart shake-up of Auckland Transport backfires in any way (looking unlikely at the moment). It'll also be interesting to see how he finds working with the new rostrum of councillors he has around the table.

I imagine his second term will be easier than his first given the lack of floods, a better understanding of the political landscape he's working in, and a generally improved reputation and relationship with the Government and others. It helps he's also riding the economic wave out of recession, roadworks in the CBD, and will cut the ribbon on the City Rail Link when it opens next year.

One thing worth keeping an eye on, though, is the air of complacency around Brown in the past several months as he took on an election in name only.

I don't think Brown is an incredibly liked figure in Auckland. Record low voter turnout this time around would suggest broad indifference to his mayoralty at this point, which is not the same as an overwhelming, sweeping mandate to lead.

And being a white man with solid professional and Sunday tennis networks (much like Phil Mauger) he doesn't suffer the same fate as Tory Whanau in Wellington.

Councillor races

The new and interesting councillors this time around will be Victoria Short, Bo Burns, Matt Winiata, and John Gillon, and how they decide to play their hand around the councillor table. The left has lost two progressive stalwarts in Chris Darby and Angela Dalton — both replaced by somewhat more right-leaning representatives but certainly less dependable in their views for progressive causes.

Victoria Short ran on a Wayne Brown-aligned ticket and it seems likely she will be aligned with the mayor on various issues, though it's unclear how she'll approach divisive issues — e.g. more like Andy Baker or Desley Simpson?

Bo Burns will certainly be more lucid and cogent than the person she's replacing, Sharon Stewart, but it's unclear her ideological leanings. Scatter shot is how many describe her approach. She previously aligned with more progressive councillor Paul Young, but then has also run for the ACT Party at the last general election.

Matt Winiata, if aligned with his Manurewa-Papakura counterpart Daniel Newman, is set to join a B-team that doesn't wholeheartedly support Brown and is conservative-coded. It will be interesting to see if he takes up this case. Likewise, Gillon may play the same hand, but given his stature in the community - it's his hand to play now.

Weird youth macinations

A number of young people are going into council this year. That's a very odd statement to make. Most notably in Upper Harbour, one second-year uni student and another uni student are joining the local board. They were previously on the youth council there.

In the retirement village of Howick/East Auckland, three people under the age of 31 are joining the Howick Local Board. Meanwhile in Waitemata, Greens-endorsed Caitlin Wilson is joining that local board after placing second overall in the ward. My friend Jack Collins has been elected in Pakuranga. He will be an excellent local board member.

It's been a good year for youth engagement.

Transport reform

The biggest change happening at this local elections — widely under-reported mind you — are the reforms happening to the transport system.

For the first time since the creation of the supercity, Auckland elected officials will have absolute and direct control over decisions over what happens on roads and streets. Before this, the council had the power to direct Auckland Transport to act in accordance with its set plans and strategies, and to direct the agency when it was failing to act in accordance with plans and set strategies. It was notable that these s92 powers were never actually used by the council in its 15 years complaining about AT.

Hazily introduced and passed between two transport ministers on their way to becoming laws, the new reforms will see local boards handed the final decision-making power over local roads (a not insubstantial number of streets), with councillors making the final decisions on the arterial network.

It's hard to see how this change will accelerate progressive transport policy — public transport, buses, bicycles, and scooters — as opposed to slowing it down.

For example, on progress results, the Maungakiekie-Tamaki Local Board has fallen to C&R (National Party) hands. This will almost certainly mean cutbacks on the Links to GI cycleway rollout and the possible later phasing of the Glen Innes to Panmure cycleway. In local board areas with clear progressive control, e.g. Waitemata, arterial roads will still be subject to severe governing body (councillor) scrutiny.

It's also hard to see what the funding picture looks like at the moment and how decision-making is split between local boards and the governing body.

My longstanding rant is that no amount of org chart shifting will change the fact that there's little democracy for divisive issues in a system where 4/5 of people do not vote. One could make an argument that obfuscating decision-making in quasi-independent bodies like AT further disincentives direct action and political engagement. One could then go on to argue that bringing politics closer to transport could *increase the stakes* so to speak, and encourage more engagement. I am sceptical of this argument.

But it's hard to see how all of this will backfire for Wayne Brown or the councillors this cycle. The biggest transport political liability on the books left is the City Rail Link and that's largely outside of the control of the current council, though Brown may be on the receiving end of some blame if things go awry.